Zimbabwe has been classified in “Zone 2,” indicating an increased likelihood of normal to below-normal rainfall from October to December, transitioning to normal to above-normal rainfall from January to March.

This classification also applies to regions such as central DRC, northern Zambia, eastern Malawi, Tanzania, and parts of Mozambique.

In a statement, SARCOF-29 noted that the forecast aligns with the known effects of La Niña on the regional climate, marking a shift away from the El Niño weather phenomenon.

El Niño typically results in warmer and drier conditions in Southern Africa, while La Niña brings cooler temperatures and increased rainfall to the region. Reads the statement from SARCOF-29:

The bulk of the SADC region is likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall for most of the period of October to December 2024, including Mauritius and central Madagascar, apart from the north-western part of the Democratic Republic of Congo where above-normal rainfall is expected.

The remainder of the region is likely to have normal to below-normal rainfall during this period of the 2024/25 season, including the island states of Comoros and Seychelles.

The period January to March 2025 is expected to have normal to above normal rainfall for most of the region except for, the south-western fringes of South Africa, south-eastern and westernmost of DRC, north-western Angola, Tanzania, northern Zambia, northern Malawi, northern Mozambique and central western tip of Madagascar where normal to below-normal rains are expected, including Comoros and Seychelles.

During the period November to March, Zimbabwe together with Zambia, Botswana, most of Namibia, western Malawi, central to southern Mozambique, Eswatini and north-eastern South Africa are expected to receive normal to above normal rainfalls.

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