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Downgraded La Niña Forecasts Spark Fears Of Another Drought In Southern Africa

5 months agoThu, 31 Oct 2024 09:01:50 GMT
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Downgraded La Niña Forecasts Spark Fears Of Another Drought In Southern Africa

International weather forecasters have downgraded predictions for La Niña’s formation and intensity, suggesting that southern Africa may not receive as much rainfall as initially hoped.

Last summer’s El Niño caused severe drought and crop failures, resulting in widespread food aid requirements.

There were high hopes that La Niña would follow, bringing good rains, but forecasts have become increasingly pessimistic.

In its bi-weekly outlook, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a bleak report on Tuesday about La Niña forming in 2024, raising concerns about another poor season for summer grain crops in southern Africa. It said:

… the chance of a La Niña event developing in the coming months has decreased compared to recent outlooks.

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If a La Niña were to develop, it is likely to be relatively weak and short-lived, with all models forecasting neutral values by February.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural climate pattern affecting global weather. ENSO is currently in its neutral phase.

The El Niño phase occurs when ocean waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual, leading to increased rainfall in some areas (like the western coast of South America) and droughts in others (like Southern Africa).

La Niña, the opposite phase, is characterised by cooler-than-normal ocean waters in the same region and often brings drier conditions to South America and wetter conditions to Southern Africa.

In the neutral phase, ocean temperatures and weather patterns are closer to average, with no significant warming or cooling.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology suggests that if La Niña forms, its impact may be limited and could dissipate by February.

Other global forecasters are also adjusting their expectations for La Niña. A US government forecaster recently indicated that the likelihood of La Niña forming has been reduced and, if it does occur, it is expected to last until March.

A weak La Niña or a summer in the neutral zone does not necessarily mean this region will experience another drought.

More: Pindula News

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29 Comments

Anonymous · 5 months ago
Bottom line - nobody knows!!!
Musorodhesvu · 5 months ago
Hey,pakashata apa,dai ikanaya,imwe drought tingakuvara.
Dzikolatu · 5 months ago
Tichafa nozhala zomene bavamunini.
Mai Chimuti · 5 months ago
Nhayi Kutadza kurima kunonzi "Drought" nechirungu here?
🌄🧱🍓🎊💞🎂🏆🍑🌽🍕👙 · 5 months ago
maybe if we try cloud ☁️🌨️ seedlings maybe we might have positive results, stop cutting down trees recklessly, those who might consult ancestors using spirit mediums or consulting God over the issue of rain ☔,we might have positive results because our water 🌊💦 tables may go dry because of people who are drilling boreholes are now too many than expected.
👀👀 · 5 months ago
vaigona cloud seeding vakaenda neruzivo rwavo netundege twavo,l used to hear tundege itwotwo tuchibva kwa Bata uko but not anymore,
PR · 5 months ago
Prophets of doom only God knows what the season will be like
Zimbabwe 4 sure · 5 months ago
Isisu tichakumbira Baba Madungwe kuti anotaura navaTenzi sezvo achimbo lancha navo....
Alby. · 5 months ago
Apa nekusungwa kwake haana mukana wacho
anonymous · 5 months ago
musadaro kani
Professor L · 5 months ago
just because an Australian based meteorological centre says so ,doesn't mean that we should take what they predict seriously.We should firstly hear from our neighbouring countries on their estimates for the amount of rain and its effectiveness for thus season
Buwada Buwada · 4 months ago
your neighbors rely on the very same forecasts you're desperately trying to denigrate. manje muchaita sei nhai muzvina fundo 🤣🤣
SekuruKaguvi · 5 months ago
Inganaye seyi muchiyita basa rekutengesa minda yamakapihwa mahara. Ivhu rakatsamwa
...,. · 5 months ago
That is what the Australian meteorologists say, what of the predictions of our own Southern African or Zimbabwean meteorologists?
Makatukura · 5 months ago
They are will copy and paste what the Australian have predicted
Alby. · 5 months ago
simple
Noob · 5 months ago
Politics, aside - zvekunaya kwemvura hazvinei nema elections plus vamwe hatisi kuda kunetswa, tiri, kuchema, accident yaitika, paKuwadzana Turn off or pamagetsi😥😥😥😥😥
Voltaire · 5 months ago
Denga harisi kufara nezviri kuitika mu Southern Africa especially mu Zimbabwe ndosaka nzara ichida kupamha kutisvasvanga
Black-Scorpion · 5 months ago
it's time to introduce smart agriculture not zvekutarisiraaa mvuraa yemudengaa iyo, manje with vene hakuna chinobuda they're busy investing on pfumvudza apa hakuna mvuraa, this is the useless government ever, dzimwe nyika vakuita maSmart agriculture like vana Israel.... nonsense
👀👀 · 5 months ago
kana paine vane hama dzinoshandisa that rd check your relatives,was watching the vids over and over again and its like a horror movie,we can blame the roads but our kombi drivers have become very reckless especially vachimhanyira kubata target,
👀👀 · 5 months ago
veduwee tsaona yandirikuona mu grp yaitikapa kuwadzana turn off ka,pafa vanhu 10 on the spot ,zvirikurwadza izvi,
Officer#12 · 5 months ago
Kwete 5 here here... 🤔🤔🤔
Chiurai · 5 months ago
Zvemvura ndezvamwari. Isu hatitarisei chete
Corruptmore Looto · 5 months ago
Stoneage thinking
Alby. · 5 months ago
taura hako zvakanyudza vanhu last season zvekufunga soo
034 · 5 months ago
Up until we do proper elections in southern Africa, we shall continue to have these droughts. Kudenga kwagumbuka
tavez.com · 5 months ago
kkk

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