Formation Of A Second GNU Highly Unlikely; Analysts Warn
Several analysts canvassed for their views by the Daily News on the possibility of the formation of another Government of National Unity (GNU) have expressed reservations for such a prospect. Zimbabwe had a GNU between 2009 and 2013 when the then leaders of ZANU PF and MDC-T, Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai respectively, came together under the auspices of SADC mediation. The current MDC leader Nelson Chamisa has expressed willingness to broker a deal with President Mnangagwa. However, analysts consider the chances of the creation of another GNU very slim. Piers Pigou, a senior consultant at the International Crisis Group had this to say
It remains unclear whether both sides are actually talking about the same thing and whether that would lead to a meeting of minds regarding some kind of power-sharing agreement.
The MDC is now calling for a national dialogue with key stakeholders, as well as a transitional authority at the same time, to oversee the implementation of both needed political and economic reforms.
Although the ruling Zanu PF may have some overlapping interests in terms of some reforms, it seems highly unlikely their government will have any interest in seeking a power-sharing arrangement.
They will not want to give any succour to the MDC’s mantra that Mnangagwa lacks legitimacy. And as far as I can see, they also don’t believe either process will or can help them.
Having said that, they may well engage at some level. But I don’t see any prospects for a genuine commitment to diluting their control through power-sharing or dialogue. processes.
Another political analyst, Dewa Mavhinga said
First, there has to be a sound legal and constitutional basis for such talks. But presently, it does not appear as if there is one.
Second, both parties must be willing to have the dialogue, but it also appears as if there are certain pre-conditions that could make the dialogue impossible. For instance, if Mnangagwa insists that he be recognised as a legitimate leader first before any talks, is Chamisa willing and ready to do that?
My sense is that politically, economically and socially, conditions may need to decline drastically first to raise enough pressure to bring the polarised leaders to the negotiating table. So far the chances of a GNU are not that high.
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