South Africa's GNU Partners Thrive As Support For EFF, MKP Decline - New Poll Shows
A recent poll by the Institute for Race Relations (IRR) reveals that political parties within South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU) have seen increased support since the general election on May 29, 2024, reported City Press.
Partners such as the ANC, DA, IFP, Patriotic Alliance, and Freedom Front Plus have all experienced growth in support, according to the poll.
In contrast, opposition parties like Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) and Julius Malema’s EFF have seen a decline in support. The MKP dropped from 15% to 12%, and the EFF from 10% to 7%.
The IRR poll was conducted in September and October 2024, via telephone with 604 registered, demographically representative voters. The margin of error is 5%.
A majority of 52% of respondents expressed a preference for a GNU with the DA and IFP as the ANC’s main partners. Only 27% preferred a coalition with MKP and the EFF.
Two-thirds (66%) of respondents believe that the GNU will complete its full five-year term, lasting until the next general election in 2029.
A large majority (83%) of respondents prioritized job creation over further distribution of social grants. This aligns with the ANC’s election campaign, which focused on income grants.
53% of respondents agreed that appointments should be based on merit, with special training for previously disadvantaged groups.
A smaller proportion (23%) felt appointments should be strictly merit-based, while 20% supported prioritizing black people in appointments.
According to Hermann Pretorius, head of strategic communications at the IRR, the growth in support for GNU partners reflects a cautiously optimistic voter sentiment toward the coalition government. He said:
Before the elections, the DA was afraid that a quarter of its voters would leave if they worked with the ANC, but this poll shows that this quarter of DA voters is willing to give cooperation with the ANC a chance. ANC voters also give their party the benefit of the doubt regarding the GNU.
Pretorius suggests that the growth in support for smaller parties within the Government of National Unity (GNU) indicates that being seen as a “constructive political player” is key to sustainable political relevance.
He warns that polling data on job creation and Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) sends a clear message to the ANC: it must focus on pragmatic, bread-and-butter issues.
He believes the ANC could regain voter support by returning to its more pragmatic policies of the late 1990s and early 2000s when it prioritised economic growth and job creation.
Pretorius attributes the EFF’s decline in support to Jacob Zuma’s return to politics, which has overshadowed Julius Malema’s image as the champion of the oppressed.
He also criticizes Malema’s decision to dismiss top EFF officials over a public relations failure, including their inability to fill buses for the EFF’s birthday event in Soweto.
Pretorius blames the decline in support for Jacob Zuma’s MKP on the party’s erratic leadership changes, particularly the appointment and dismissal of leaders under Zuma’s influence.
However, he notes that the party is starting to build its structures, though Zuma’s personal influence remains a significant factor in its support.
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