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The Zimbabwean government is forecasting a strong economic rebound in 2025 as the country recovers from an El Niño-induced drought that has affected agricultural production, increased demand for imports, and strained state finances.
Presenting the 2025 National Budget at the New Parliament Building in Mount Hampden, Harare, on Thursday, November 28, Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube projected a 6% expansion in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2025, a significant increase from the 2% growth expected in 2024. Ncube had previously anticipated a 5.3% growth for 2024. He said:
<blockquote>
The domestic economy is still projected to record a growth of 2% in 2024. However, the agriculture sector, which was initially projected to contract by -21%, is now expected to contract by -15% on account of better than anticipated output on wheat and dairy.
This improvement will, however, be offset by lower performance in mining and manufacturing sectors, maintaining the overall growth forecast of 2%.
In the outlook, economic growth is now projected at 6% in 2025, slightly below the initial forecast of 6.5%.
The projected strong economic performance is expected to emanate from the recovery in the agriculture sector, which is poised to grow by 12.8%, electricity generation by 10.6%, information technology by 9.9% and by mining 5.6%.
The anticipated La-Nina weather phenomenon, usually associated with normal to above-normal rainfall, is going to be the major driver of growth in agriculture and electricity generation.
</blockquote>
Ncube said the 2025 economic growth projections are underpinned by normal to above-normal rainfall which is expected to result in increased agricultural production, a stable exchange rate and low inflation providing a conducive doing business environment, and tight fiscal and monetary policies.
More: <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/">Pindula News</a>

Pindula News

Zimbabwe's economy is expected to grow by 6% in 2025, which is higher than the 2% growth expected in 2024. This is because the agriculture sector is doing better. The country is also expecting good rainfall, which will help with farming and electricity generation. The Finance Minister thinks the economy will be good in 2025 because of these factors. This is good news for Zimbabwe's economy!

Mthuli Ncube Projects 6% GDP Growth For Zimbabwe In 2025

President Emmerson Mnangagwa is hopeful Zimbabwe’s ailing economy will turn around this year due to an increase in tourist arrivals and the recent discovery of oil and gas in Muzarabani, <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/president-hopeful-zimbabwe-economy-will-turn-around-in-2024/7420200.html">reported VOA</a>.
However, economists are not as optimistic, as Zimbabwe faces looming famine due to El Nino which is expected to further hurt the country’s agro-based economy.
In a New Year message broadcast to Zimbabweans on national television and social media, Mnangagwa said Zimbabwe was on the path to prosperity.
The President said the mining sector had surpassed the target of $12 billion in 2023, while the country was now food-sufficient. He added:
<blockquote>
I am encouraged by the increased number of both local and international tourists visiting our country.
Equally, investments in new tourism products and facilities which bolstered the sector are a welcome development.
As we drive towards energy self-sufficiency, the discovery of oil and gas in Muzarabani confirms Zimbabwe’s potential as a future producer of gas.
This should translate into meeting our energy demands commensurate with the ever-growing economy.
</blockquote>
In response to Mnangagwa’s speech, Gift Mugano, an economics professor at Durban University of Technology, said:
<blockquote>
We are an agro-based economy. We sneeze when the agriculture sector catches a cold. We know that this year there is a drought.
That will have a devastating impact on the economy. With drought, we will be importing food.
Because of the Russia-Ukraine war, which has seen prices of food, globally, go up around 50%.
We will be forking [out] something in the region of close to $1 billion. Which is almost 20% or so of our total foreign currency receipt.
So this will weigh down on the economy in terms of the economy performance. So, to be quite frank and quite honest, the economy will underperform this year.
Yes, we are talking about the discovery of gas and oil but it’s too early to talk about that development as the driver of the economy.
</blockquote>
Prosper Chitambara, senior economist with the Labor and Economic Development Research Institute of Zimbabwe, said:
<blockquote>
In terms of the discovery of oil and gas, I think it’s going to take a bit of time probably for the country to begin to benefit from this important discovery.
I think there should be some gestation period, which also then allows for the investor to fully set up and start commercial activities.
But overall, this year the economy is expected to grow by 3.5% which is lower than the 5.5% estimated growth there for last year.
</blockquote>
Last month, the World Bank projected Zimbabwe’s economy to slow to 3.5 per cent in 2024, with agricultural output expected to fall due to the El Nino-induced drought.
In its Zimbabwe Economic Report, released Wednesday, 13 December, the Washington-based lender also said weaker global demand for minerals will negatively impact the country’s economic growth.
More: <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/">Pindula News</a>

Mnangagwa Hopeful Zimbabwe's Economy Will Turn Around In 2024

The World Bank is projecting more bad news for Zimbabwe as it is projecting that the Zimbabwean economy will probably contract by a whopping 10% in 2020 leaving the country’s economic growth in the negative. a number that is -12.7% lower than what was projected at the turn of the new year, The Zimbabwe Independent reports.
According to the international lender, the COVID-19 pandemic has further worsened the woes troubling Zimbabwe:
<blockquote>As a result of these severe economic strains, activity in the region (sub-Saharan Africa) is expected to contract by 2,8 percent this year the sharpest contraction on record and 5,8 percentage points weaker than previous forecasts.
The fall in per capita GDP (gross domestic product) is bound to be even deeper, likely causing millions in the region to fall back into extreme poverty.</blockquote>
However, the World Bank had a bit of good news for beleaguered Zimbabwe as it projected that the economy will rebound by close to 3% next year:
<blockquote>Growth in the region is expected to rebound to 3,1 percent in 2021; however, the outlook is subject to substantial uncertainty. The projected pick-up assumes that the pandemic will have faded by the second half of 2020, that domestic outbreaks in the region follow a similar path, and that growth in major trading partners will rebound. Commodity prices are also expected to recover but remain below 2019 levels,
These include weak and underfunded health care systems government per capita spending on health care is about 2% of that in advanced economies and lack of access to basic sanitation.</blockquote>
The socio-economic situation has deteriorated over the last few months escalated with the collapse of the exchange rate, inflation soaring to 750+%, human right abuses drawing the attention of the international community
More: <a href="https://www.theindependent.co.zw/2020/06/12/zim-economy-seen-contracting-by-10/">The Zimbabwe Independent </a>

The Zimbabwean Economy Could Contract By 10% In 2020 - World Bank

The <a href="https://www.pindula.co.zw/Mthuli_Ncube">Finance Minister</a> remains confident the Zimbabwean economy will grow by 3% in 2020, The Sunday Mail reports.
Speaking to the publication, Professor Ncube stated his reasons why he is that optimistic:
<blockquote>I have seen the forecasts doing the rounds, the EIU (London-based Economist Intelligence Unit) in particular, showing a very huge negative growth (minus 13 percent), but we are optimistic as Government. We projected growth to be at 3 percent.
We have our reasons. It’s been a better rainy season, stronger commodities and a more expansionary fiscal space. Our forecast on productivity is what will deliver this growth.</blockquote>
Mthuli’s forecasts are in spite of the 400% inflation and the exponentially rising cost of living.
More: <a href="https://www.sundaymail.co.zw/mthuli-sticks-to-his-guns">The Sunday Mail</a>

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